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As news broke that the United States and Israel were carrying out a massive attack on Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Moscow unleashed a barrage of words against the operation.  

quickly trotted out a Soviet-style denunciation of the attack, calling it "a pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent UN member state in violation of fundamental principles and norms of international law." 

Dmitri Medvedev, a former president of Russia, current deputy chairman of Vladimir Putin's security council, and the Kremlin's leading online troller-in-chief, : "NATO鈥檚 nuts! First, the US kills Iran鈥檚 leader and starts a war in the Middle East. Next, NATO idiots led by Trump鈥檚 servile 鈥渟onny鈥� Rutte mull invoking Article 5. How about nominating POTUS for the Nobel Peace Prize for starting a major war, eh? Orwell was right: war is peace!"

In a more serious statement, 鈥嬧�� described Khamenei鈥檚 assassination as "a murder committed in cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law.鈥� Ayatollah Khamenei, he said, 鈥渨ill be remembered as an outstanding statesman who made a huge personal contribution to the development of friendly Russian-Iranian relations, bringing them to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership.鈥� 

Moscow and Tehran did sign a strategic partnership agreement in 2025, expanding economic cooperation, and strengthening security and political coordination, but that treaty, unlike Russia鈥檚 treaties with Belarus and North Korea, does not require Russia to defend Iran if it is attacked.  

As a result, Moscow has done nothing militarily to help its 鈥渇riend,鈥� Iran.  

Putin鈥檚 inaction is a reminder of how he failed to respond to the downfall of two other friends and allies: Syrian president Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, and Venezuelan president Nicol谩s Maduro in January 2026. Kremlin critics have been quick to see that as proof of the Russian leader鈥檚 inability to help his allies, as well as of what they say is his diminishing international influence.  

鈥淭hey have demonstrated their weakness now 鈥� they are worthless as allies,鈥� Ukrainian president 鈥嬧�� scoffed. 鈥�     鈥� 

Still, in an interview 鈥� conceded that the war against Iran may hurt Ukraine鈥檚 ability to defend itself against Russia鈥檚 onslaught: 鈥淲e may face difficulties in obtaining missiles and weapons to defend our skies,鈥� he said. 鈥淎mericans and their allies in the Middle East may need them for self-defense, for example, Patriot missile systems.鈥� 

In the early days of Russia鈥檚 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Iran supplied Moscow with Shahed drones, along with the technology to produce them. They were a game-changer for the Russian military. But Russia soon began adapting Iran鈥檚 technology and now produces its own version of the Shahed, which it calls the Geran. As a result, Moscow is less reliant on Tehran. 

The Russian president may find ways to exploit the war the US and Israel have unleashed on Iran. Oil and gas prices, at least for now, are spiking. That is good news for the Russian budget, and for Moscow鈥檚 ability to continue its war against Ukraine.  

The conflict raging in the Middle East is likely to deflect the Trump administration鈥檚 attention from Ukraine, and that could ease what little pressure there is right now on Putin to agree to a US-brokered peace agreement with Ukraine. President Trump has openly talked of regime change in Iran, which Russia, for years, has categorically rejected in the post-Soviet space. Russian state-controlled media have been criticizing Trump for violating his previous mantra of 鈥渘o more forever wars.鈥�  

But Putin鈥檚 priority is restoring relations with the US and he is not burning any bridges. While criticizing the attack on Iran, he has not, so far, publicly blamed Donald Trump. 

Putin is 鈥媋lso 鈥媓edging his bets with Israel. Russia鈥檚 relations with Israel were damaged after Hamas鈥欌�媠鈥� October 7 attack on Israel when the Kremlin, in an attempt to maintain diplomatic leverage in the Middle East, invited Hamas representatives to Moscow. Putin  is鈥� now鈥� trying to preserve his pragmatic relations with Israel and with the Gulf Arab states. 

Russia鈥檚 military bloggers, who often criticize the Russian military for its performance in Ukraine, are closely following the war against Iran, noting with chagrin that the US military was able to swiftly decapitate the Iran鈥檚 supreme leader, a feat the Russian military was unable to accomplish with Volodymyr Zelensky in the first days of Moscow鈥檚 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. That was more than four years ago, and Putin continues to pummel Ukraine. 

The US-Israeli military operation does appear to have caught Russia by surprise. The war鈥檚 future course is unpredictable, as are its implications for Putin. So far, he appears to be following his usual playbook: wait and watch; take no immediate action; exploit any aspect you can; and, in the meantime, hope the United States gets bogged down in the unfolding chaos of a Mideast war.  

And yet, the shocking ability of the US, along with Israel, to remove Iran鈥檚 leader in a lightning military operation ordered by an American president who is always full of surprises and yet with whom Putin is trying to curry favor may have some in Russia鈥檚 leadership worried: could it set a precedent, putting Russia鈥檚 own leadership in peril?