A blog of the Indo-Pacific Program
One month into its term, Pakistan鈥檚 new government has experienced its first crisis.
It鈥檚 not about economics, even though many analysts had predicted that worsening balance of payments problems would constitute the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI)-led administration鈥檚 first test. Nor does it have anything to do with foreign affairs, even as Pakistan鈥檚 relations with Washington and with its Indian and Afghan neighbors continue to struggle.
Instead, it revolves around a personnel decision.
One of the new government鈥檚 first moves was to establish an Economic Advisory Council. The idea鈥攁 wholly well-intentioned one鈥攚as to recruit Pakistan鈥檚 best and brightest to advise Islamabad on the country鈥檚 mounting economic challenges. The government brought in a number of top economists, including world-renowned scholars based overseas. One of them was Atif Mian, a Princeton economist.
The idea...was to recruit Pakistan鈥檚 best and brightest to advise Islamabad on the country鈥檚 mounting economic challenges.
And yet, soon after Mian joined the prestigious new body, the government announced on Twitter that the scholar had been 鈥渁sked to step down.鈥 Mian himself confirmed on Twitter that he resigned 鈥渁s the Government was facing a lot of adverse pressure regarding my appointment from the Mullahs.鈥
Mian is a member of the Ahmadi community, a religious minority that is heavily discriminated against in Pakistan. Religious hardliners in Pakistan, many of whom denounce Ahmadis and sometimes call for their deaths, pressed the government to force him out. And that鈥檚 apparently exactly what Islamabad did.
The decision sparked an uproar on social media in Pakistan. Even conservative commentators and PTI supporters railed against the move. Economists from around the world also condemned the decision. The crisis worsened when two other prominent Pakistani economists鈥擜sim Khwaja of Harvard and Imran Rasul of University College, London鈥攔esigned from the Council in protest about the treatment of Mian.
This is not just another case of state-sponsored religious discrimination in Pakistan, of which there are sadly many examples. Rather, the government鈥檚 decision to remove Mian could come back to haunt the PTI in a big way.
First, there could be costly political consequences. Vocal PTI supporters expressed their vociferous opposition to the decision on Twitter. Commentators aligned with the Pakistani Army鈥攁 close ally of the PTI鈥攁lso weighed in with their opposition. What made the decision particularly embarrassing for the government was that in the days leading up to Mian鈥檚 removal, top officials had offered public assurances that religious minorities would be treated well in Pakistan with the PTI in power.
Second, Mian鈥檚 removal could undercut the government鈥檚 efforts to address Pakistan鈥檚 economic challenges. Mian鈥檚 expertise includes debt, one of Pakistan鈥檚 biggest concerns, and particularly as billions of dollars in Chinese loans pour into the country for Beijing鈥檚 China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a part of its broader Belt and Road Initiative. And the losses of Khwaja and Rasul will further deprive the much-ballyhooed EAC of much-needed expertise.
Pakistan鈥檚 troubled global image鈥攁 frequent source of anxiety for Pakistani officials鈥攈as taken another hit.
Third, Pakistan鈥檚 troubled global image鈥攁 frequent source of anxiety for Pakistani officials鈥攈as taken another hit. Mian鈥檚 international prominence ensures that the world鈥攁nd particularly his fellow academicians in the West鈥攚ill take note of what happened to him. The optics are dreadful: The Pakistani government, pressured by religious hardliners, prioritized religion over merit and prevented one of Pakistan鈥檚 most high-achieving economists from serving his country and tackling one of its biggest challenges鈥攁nd a challenge that he is uniquely qualified to tackle, at that.
Fourth, the government鈥檚 decision to remove Mian amplifies the tendency of Pakistani political leaders to cave in to the pressure of religious hardliners. This is a longstanding reality in Pakistan; last November, a group of conservative Islamists that had previously advocated for the execution of Ahmadis convened a two-week sit-in on a main road near Islamabad. The government did not stop them. And in an eventual negotiation that ended the sit-in, it gave in to many of the protestors鈥 demands. And that鈥檚 just the most recent example.
Several factors, however, make this latest example of capitulation to hardliners particularly troubling.
First, hardline religious political parties are becoming politically stronger in Pakistan. Several of them were formed in recent months and were permitted to contest the country鈥檚 election in July. Admittedly, as is typically the case in Pakistan, they fared relatively poorly at the ballot box. Still, the fact that more political parties harboring hateful, bigoted views are entering the political mainstream suggests that their influence鈥攊ncluding on the central government鈥攃ould intensify. And that means the government could be capitulating to hardliners a whole lot more in the coming weeks and months.
Another reason why the Mian incident is unsettling is that the government has promised to usher in a new era in Pakistan. The PTI鈥檚 main slogan is Naya (new) Pakistan. It has pledged to bring in cleaner, more efficient governance, and to introduce bold new policies to address the country鈥檚 longstanding challenges.
And yet there鈥檚 reason to believe that Pakistan will continue to experience the same old story of politicians bending to the will and demands of influential special interests with dangerously retrograde views.
Ultimately, it appears that for all the fanfare of a new government that promises to do things differently, an old adage is still very much in order: The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Follow Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Program and senior associate for South Asia, on Twitter
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The views expressed are the author's alone, and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government or the 浪花直播 Center. Copyright 2018, Asia Program. All rights reserved.
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Indo-Pacific Program
The Indo-Pacific Program promotes policy debate and intellectual discussions on US interests in the Asia-Pacific as well as political, economic, security, and social issues relating to the world鈥檚 most populous and economically dynamic region. Read more