浪花直播

How is Japan navigating changes in global trade and its evolving economic relations with the United States, as well as the domestic expectations for Japan on the international stage? Those were the issues of focus at an event held in collaboration with the Social Science Research Council鈥檚 New Voice from Japan initiative, which seeks to introduce young and upcoming scholars in Japan to the world and tries to involve academics in the policy process.

Takamasa Sekine, associate professor at Nagoya University of Commerce and Business based his presentation on two questions: Has Japan 鈥渟hifted from passive rule take to active rule maker鈥� in terms of global trade and what is the impact of Japan鈥檚 new trade policies on the U.S.鈥揓apan trade relationship?

Traditionally, Japan has been passive when it comes to formulating trade rules. While it has concluded 16 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) so far, most of them are simply to cope with the rules within the World Trade Organization鈥檚 (WTO) framework. But Japan鈥檚 approach to FTAs is now changing and is in the process of implementing three 鈥渕ega FTAs鈥濃�搉amely, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the EU- Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, and Regional Compressive Economic Partnership.

Sekine focused on the TPP and said it had a 鈥漡reat impact on the economy Japan.鈥� as it contains some 鈥渁dvanced and new rules,鈥� especially regarding state owned enterprises. Many of these enterprises survive because they receive subsidies from the government, and while the WTO doesn鈥檛 account for such subsidies, the TPP does. In essence 鈥渢he TPP has many new innovative rules and that鈥檚 why Japan is trying to promote this agreement.鈥� According to Sekine, Japan has played a strong leadership role in the formation of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) or TPP 11, and as a result of Japan鈥檚 leadership countries such as Colombia, Indonesia, and even the United Kingdom have expressed their desire to join the Agreement.

Sekine, said that while the CPTPP could become one of the largest FTAs in the world, 鈥渋t seems like it is becoming nearly too late for the United States to come back to the TPP鈥� this is because once the TPP 11 becomes effective, the United States can only come back to the system as an applicant鈥� as a rule taker.鈥� After the United States withdrew from the TPP, the remaining 11 members decided to suspend several provisions which the United States had pushed for, specifically those relating to intellectual property rights. In order to re-activate these suspended provisions, all 11 members will have to give their consensus which may be difficult to achieve.

Despite the United States leaving the TPP, the remaining members want it to come back as it was 鈥渟trategically important for creating international trade rules鈥� and countering China. Sekine says even if the 鈥淭PP can survive, without the United States it may lose its strategical meaning.鈥� Hence, he recommends the CPTPP revise the consensus rule so that suspended provisions of the original agreement can be brought back easily.

Sekine used the examples of automobile exports and beef imports to explain the impact of Japan鈥檚 new trade initiatives on the U.S.-Japan bilateral relations. Sekine said the Japanese export of automobiles to the United States would face a higher tariff rate and have an adverse impact on Japan鈥檚 automobile industry, however Japan could alleviate it鈥檚 loses by increasing imports to CPTPP members, especially Australia. Similarly, Japan can continue to impose a tariff on the beef it imports on the United States.

Sekine concluded by stating that 鈥淛apan is showing strong leadership by creating regional trade rules, however Japan鈥檚 recent trade policy has a kind of negative impacted on the U.S.鈥揓apan trade relationship because鈥� it is putting the U.S. in a difficult position.鈥� He recommended that the future of the U.S.鈥揓apan trade relationship be constructed around the TPP.

Akai Ohi, adjunct lecturer at the University of Tokyo, Hosei University, and Showa Women鈥檚 University, sought to provide a framework for to understand Japanese politics, especially the politics of reform over the last three decades.

During the Cold War, Japan followed the 1955 System 鈥渋n which the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (Conservative) was in power, and Japan鈥檚 Socialist Party (Progressive) was in the opposition for a very long time.鈥� Ohi characterized the conservatives by their 鈥渟upport for the capitalist system and the U.S.鈥揓apan alliance.鈥� The Progressive side on the other hand, 鈥減referred egalitarian social policies and an 鈥� isolationist constitution.鈥�

Ohi stated that the 鈥渃onfrontation between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Socialist Party鈥� was not simply an ideological confrontation, and 鈥渂oth sides had a stable base of support in civil society.鈥� While the Liberal Democratic Party received support from the corporate sector and rural agricultural regions, the Socialist party 鈥渉ad a space of support in the trade unions.鈥� But this confrontation came to an end in the 1990鈥檚 after the 鈥減rogressive side almost disappeared鈥� with the end of the Cold War. 鈥淪ince 1990鈥檚 therefore, all major political parties in Japanese politics are more or less conservative, in the sense that they all accept the free market economy and the U.S.鈥揓apan alliance.鈥�

According to Ohi, the era of fierce ideological confrontation has ended, but political divisions still persist. In his view, the 鈥渂roader conservative trend has been divided into two kinds of conservatives: conventional conservatives and reformist conservatives.鈥� These two types of conservatives are 鈥渞emarkably different.鈥� The conventional conservatives 鈥渟tick to pork-barrel politics, and  consensus-oriented  decision making among bureaucrats, politicians, and the public sector.鈥� The reformist conservatives on the other hand, 鈥渢ry to dismantle pork barrel politics by strong political will and leadership.鈥�

Japanese politics has been a tussle between these two types of conservatives over the last 30 years. The government of the reformist conservatives engage in the 鈥減olitics of reform,鈥� which is characterized by 鈥渟trengthening top down decision making, and鈥� administrative and economic reform to organize governmental offices and to reduce regulations.鈥� Over the last three decades, there have been three waves where reformist conservatives advanced their political agenda鈥搉amely, the administrations of Morihiro Hosokawa (1993-94), Ryutaro Hashimoto (1996-98), and Junichiro Koizumi (2001-06).

In 2009, there was full scale change of government as the Democratic Party of Japan took power. Ohi said it is hard to define them in the reformist trend. While it they initiated 鈥渋nstitutional reform to strengthen political leadership,鈥� which can be seen as a continuation of the earlier reformist conservative policies, the new government also had 鈥渁 social democratic tendency.鈥� Ohi calls Shinzo Abe鈥檚 administration which has been in place since 2012 a 鈥渢urning point for reformist agenda.鈥� This is because 鈥渉e pretends to continue the reformist agenda such as de-regulation, and privatization, but in reality, he stays away from it. He is not so keen to execute those kinds of reforms, and this stance can be seen in his famous economic policy Abenomics鈥揹ynamic mixture of pork barrel politics and quasi neo-liberal politics鈥�

Overall, the reformist conservatives have become dominant over the conventional conservatives through a process of 鈥渢wo steps forward and one step backwards.鈥� However, the former progressive wing of Japanese politics is once again gaining traction, and according to Ohi, one may see a 鈥渢hree cornered confrontation among the reformist conservative, conventional conservative and the third pole which people might call progressive, liberal, left or constitutional鈥� in the near future.

The views expressed are the author's alone, and do not represent the views of the U.S. Government or the 浪花直播 Center. Copyright 2018, Asia Program. All rights reserved