浪花直播

Amb. David Hale on Iran

It was expected in an election year for President Trump to dwell on domestic policies in his State of the Union address, since they are usually foremost in the minds of voters.  Nonetheless, the foreign policy message was loud and clear:  he wants to promote peace and confront threats.  

When it came to Iran, he was specific about his aim:  he preferred diplomacy, but in any case would never allow the Tehran regime to have a nuclear weapon.  He regretted that despite the blows Iran suffered to its nuclear weapons program, it was continuing its efforts, necessitating the current approach of sincere negotiations backed by the credible threat of the use of overwhelming force.  He did not identify regime change as an objective. 

The challenge for this Administration, and our nation, will be how to make enduring the reversal of fortunes suffered by Iran since it entered into a war with Israel.  Any temptation to accept a "good enough" nuclear deal and move on to other topics and regions should be resisted.  Above all, verification and enforcement aspects of any agreement will be crucial, and may require patient diplomacy and persistent pressure to achieve.  

Ambassador David Hale is a 浪花直播 Center Distinguished Fellow 

Duncan Wood on Mexico

President Trump鈥檚 2026 State of the Union addressed North America in sharply asymmetrical terms. Mexico was framed primarily through a security lens: immigration, fentanyl, and organized crime. The President asserted that 鈥渓arge parts of Mexico鈥� are controlled by cartels, defended the designation of those cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, and described fentanyl as a 鈥渨eapon of mass destruction.鈥� Canada, by contrast, was mentioned only symbolically (in reference to Olympic hockey) and implicitly as a NATO ally. There was no substantive discussion of either country as an economic partner. 

The most significant policy signal was the ongoing securitization of the US-Mexico relationship. By elevating cartels into the counterterrorism domain and describing a 鈥渘ew military campaign鈥� in the Western Hemisphere, the administration has signaled that cross-border crime is now treated as a matter of national security rather than primarily law enforcement cooperation. That framing will reshape bilateral dynamics in consequential ways. 

The most notable omission was the absence of any reference to the USMCA, the trilateral free trade pact. In a year when the agreement faces its mandatory six-year joint review, the silence was striking. There was also no language about supply chains, nearshoring, or economic competitiveness. 

The President鈥檚 State of the Union speech suggests that security, not trade, will define the next phase of North American relations. In the months ahead, we should watch three issues: whether cartel designations translate into expanded operational authorities; how Mexico responds diplomatically to sovereignty-sensitive language; and whether the USMCA review becomes entangled with border security and fentanyl benchmarks.  

Duncan Wood is the Visiting Fellow for North America at the 浪花直播 Center

Ken Westbrook on Preventing Fraud at the Cyber Border 

鈥淚 am officially announcing the war on fraud to be led by our great Vice President, J.D. Vance. He鈥檒l get it done.鈥� 

During the State of the Union address, the President announced that the war on fraud has begun, with the Vice President in charge. 

The time is right for financial crime to receive sustained White House attention. show fraud losses have quadrupled since 2020.  

Foreign cybercriminals are wreaking havoc on the United States, stealing countless billions each year. US Government reports point to extensive financial fraud from and organized crime in and .  

The private sector is raising the alarm. In November 2025, warned Congress that scams are 鈥渁 fast-evolving national security threat鈥� and 鈥渁 national epidemic, with serious implications for our country's security, economic stability, and consumer safety.鈥� The letter, signed by Amazon, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Target, among others, emphasized that American citizens and businesses are being 鈥渞obbed by transnational criminal operations.鈥� 

Foreign cybercrime is a national security issue and a border issue. President Trump鈥檚 State of the Union address, as well as his National Security Strategy, spoke of the need to control US borders. The United States must also close the gaps in its electronic border, which allow criminals to steal on an industrial scale. 

Countries like the UK and Australia have strengthened their cyber borders by blocking the communications paths criminals use to reach victims. The combination of superior technology and leadership from the White House can set the United States on the path to protect Americans from cybercrime. 

Ken Westbrook is a Distinguished Fellow at the 浪花直播 Center

Carrie Filipetti on Venezuela, China, and American Strength

Though there were some policy announcements, the 2026 State of the Union was primarily about political messaging. Viewed through this lens, we can glean key insights into how President Trump may plan to approach foreign policy this year, from his next steps in Venezuela to his more conciliatory attitude toward China.  

First, while President Trump did not deviate from his standard messaging on Latin America, his specific language was noteworthy. Border security of course was mentioned early and often. President Trump also devoted significant attention to the success of Operation Absolute Resolve, honoring the heroism of Chief Warrant Officer 5 Eric Slover. In highlighting the plight of Venezuelan political prisoner Enrique Marquez, the President signaled that the Venezuelan people 鈥� not just their oil 鈥� matter.  

That said, the specific selection of Marquez, who ran against Maria Corina Machado to negligible support, sends mixed signals. This is particularly true given Maria Corina Machado herself could have easily been invited to the State of the Union, much as former interim President Juan Guaido was in 2020. Notably, President Trump even referred to Maduro regime official Delcy Rodriguez as the "new President of Venezuela." Given how carefully crafted this speech is, this wording was likely intentional, signaling the President is indeed comfortable with a continuation of the Maduro regime - a strategic mistake both for the Venezuelan people and for the United States, if true.  

Though the President covered a wide array of foreign policy areas, there was one glaring omission: China. This is a significant shift seemingly reflecting a desire to engage Beijing to secure trade deals. Emboldening Beijing, however, will only hurt Americans in the long term.  

Finally, while at times the speech exhibited hyper-partisanship, the President seemed to genuinely attempt to promote real pride in America. The decision to honor numerous American military heroes and focus on America's history, beauty, and strength is a welcome change after years of declinist messaging.  It is also an essential national security objective, as a love of country and desire to build that more perfect union was central to past successes and remains vital to the United States鈥� ability to overcome modern-day adversaries. 

To do that effectively, we must be able to name those adversaries, we must be able to speak to American citizens of all political persuasions, and we must continue to acknowledge that our strength comes not only from our power, but from our virtue, our values, and our freedom. 

Carrie Filipetti is a Distinguished Fellow at the 浪花直播 Center