Israel鈥檚 October 26 retaliatory strike on Iran means that there鈥檚 no going back. Though leaders on both sides played down the potential for future strikes, direct attacks between the two largest militaries in the region are now facts of their rivalry.
The war that nobody wants is edging ever closer. In the latest escalation, Israel struck some 20 Iranian military sites, spread across three provinces, in the wee hours of October 26.鈥疶el Aviv and Tehran have repeatedly that they do not seek a full-blown war. Yet the intensifying attacks by both nations have complicated the prospects of defusing, de-escalating, or ending the broader array of conflicts that pit Israel against Iran and its 鈥淎xis of Resistance,鈥 a network of militias in Gaza, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.鈥
Amid the escalation, there have been few visible or viable off-ramps to prevent the world鈥檚 most volatile region from getting worse.
Those conflicts have increasingly intersected across the Middle East since Hamas invaded Israel, a gruesome and deadly confrontation that has involved a militia in a territory the size of greater Philadelphia taking on a nuclear-armed country the size of New Jersey. A direct war between Iran and Israel would engage the two largest militaries in the Middle East. Amid the escalation, there have been few visible or viable off-ramps to prevent the world鈥檚 most volatile region from getting worse.
The initial reaction by both countries was dire鈥攁lbeit only rhetorically. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Israel鈥檚 鈥減recise and powerful鈥 attack had achieved its goals. Tehran 鈥渕ust understand a simple principle: whoever hurts us, we hurt him,鈥 he said. Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Israeli national security minister, the airstrikes on Iran just an 鈥渙pening blow.鈥 The next stage, he urged, should damage Iran鈥檚 strategic assets.鈥
In Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that the regime would consider how to 鈥渃onvey the power and will of the Iranian people鈥 while urging the public not to either downplay or exaggerate what happened. In a letter to the United Nations, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi the Israeli strikes 鈥渦nlawful and aggressive鈥 and appealed to the world body to condemn Israel for violating Iran鈥檚 鈥渟overeignty and territorial integrity.鈥濃
The precedent of large and direct attacks has now been set.
But the escalations have changed the longstanding algorithm of conflict in the Middle East. 鈥淓ven if this round will be contained, we are in a different situation鈥 that is yet to fully play out, Danny Citrinowicz, a鈥痜ormer Iran analyst for Israeli military intelligence, on X (formerly Twitter). Thomas Juneau, a defense analyst and Middle East expert at the University of Ottawa鈥痶hat the region would not return to the status quo even if Iran chooses to de-escalate. The precedent of large and direct attacks has now been set. 鈥淭hat means the baseline of tension moving forward will be higher than it was before,鈥 he wrote on X. 鈥淲ith wars in Gaza and Lebanon continuing and not close to being resolved, that means more cycles of violence.鈥 The risk now is of an 鈥渦ncontrolled escalation.鈥
Two long-sought diplomatic deals might help ease the context of hostilities short-term: One would guarantee the release of more than 100 Israeli and other hostages held by Hamas for over a year in exchange for a ceasefire and more humanitarian aid for the Palestinians in Gaza. The other would push Hezbollah further from Israel鈥檚 southern border so its citizens could return safely to their homes in exchange for an end to Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. Hamas and Hezbollah are the two militias on Israel鈥檚 borders that have been trained, armed, and at least partly funded by Iran.
US diplomacy has been critical to both deals since Israel would almost certainly not consider either without broad American security guarantees. Tehran, however, has only grown angrier at Washington for its deployment of additional materiel and personnel to support Israel. The Iranian mission to the UN charged that the United States was complicit in the Israeli attack on October 26.鈥
In the long-term, neither deal, even if approved by multiple parties in the diverse Middle East conflicts, would ensure an end to more than four decades of animosity between Israel and Iran. Their hostilities date back to Iran鈥檚 1979 revolution, which ended the monarchy鈥檚 diplomatic recognition, military cooperation, and trade with Israel. The new theocracy dubbed Israel the 鈥淟ittle Satan,鈥 with America as the 鈥淕reat Satan.鈥 Iran started nurturing a network of militias in the early 1980s, which played out in a shadow war over the next four decades.鈥
Both calibrated the scope of their attacks. But both rejected recognition of the other鈥檚 security needs.
In the seven-month window between April and October 2024, the direct tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran grew larger or more sophisticated with each round. Both contended that the other was the aggressor. Both felt victimized. Each unleashed its military arsenal鈥攊ncrementally, but increasingly鈥攖o warn the other to back off. Both calibrated the scope of their attacks. But both rejected recognition of the other鈥檚 security needs. The following is a timeline of major attacks鈥攏ot including almost daily cross-border strikes between Hezbollah and Israel鈥攐ver those seven months.
April 1: An Israeli airstrike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, killed more than a dozen, including two Revolutionary Guard generals and other military officials. The attack reportedly violated the international protocol that protects diplomatic facilities.
April 13: In response, Iran unleashed more than 300 drones and missiles in its first direct on Israel; most were intercepted or downed by Israel and a US-led coalition.鈥
April 19: In a retaliatory strike, Israel hit an Iranian air defense system near a facility in Natanz associated with Iran鈥檚 nuclear weapons program.
July 31: The political chief of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated while visiting Tehran for the inauguration of a new Iranian president; the attack was widely assumed to be by Israel.鈥
Sept. 17-18: Dozens of Lebanese were killed, and hundreds were injured when pagers and walkie-talkies exploded in an attack widely linked to Israel鈥檚 campaign against Hezbollah. 鈥淲e are at the start of a new phase in the war,鈥 Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told Israeli forces.鈥
Sept. 27: An Israeli airstrike killed Hezbollah鈥檚 long-serving leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut.鈥
Oct. 2:鈥疘ran fired 180 missiles at Israel in retaliation for the deaths of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian military officials.
Oct. 26: In response, Israel attacked some 20 military targets鈥攊ncluding missile production sites, radar stations, and air defense batteries鈥攊n three Iranian provinces.
The views expressed in this piece are those of the author and do not reflect an official position of the 浪花直播 Center.
浪花直播鈥檚 Middle East Program serves as a crucial resource for the policymaking community and beyond, providing analyses and research that helps inform US foreign policymaking, stimulates public debate, and expands knowledge about issues in the wider Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Read more
