浪花直播

As we wrote here, the midterm election pointed out to some likely unexpected results. Those results finally materialized and provided interesting surprises.

Undoubtedly, the best news was the electoral turnout, despite the threats of violence, boycott, abstention and rallies for 鈥渂allot annulling鈥�. With 47% of the voters list showing up, it was the busiest midterm election since 1997. At State level, turnout surpassed an astonishing 60% in Nuevo Le贸n. Clearly, people opted for a democratic way to reject violence and provocation.

Interestingly, the percentage of invalid ballots (4.78%) was smaller than in 2009 (5.3%) defeating the 鈥渁nulista鈥� movement call to waste the whole electoral process. And surprises went even farther:

1. The victories of the 鈥渋ndependent鈥� candidates, or more accurately 鈥渘o party candidates鈥�. The cases of Pedro Kumamoto (local representative in Jalisco), Manuel Clouthier (Congressman from Sinaloa), C茅sar Valdez (mayor in Nuevo Le贸n), Alfonso Mart铆nez (mayor in Michoac谩n) and the rising star Jaime Rodriguez Calder贸n, a.k.a 鈥淏ronco鈥�, elected governor of prosperous northern State of Nuevo Le贸n.  

2. The punishment vote and alternation. Five states switched from political colors, as voters punished serious corruption allegations against PAN governor Guillermo Padr茅s of Sonora and PRI麓s governor Rodrigo Medina in Nuevo Le贸n. Or as a reaction to blatant abandonment as was the case of PRD in Guerrero and PRI in Michoac谩n. Finally but on a separate file, the enigmatic loss of PRI麓s highly rated administration of Gov. Jos茅 Calzada in central State of Queretaro, probably due more to an unconvincing campaign by the official candidate or to the decision of a more sophisticated electorate.   

3. Mexico City entering the multi-party system, as voters chose to end18 years of left wing PRD hegemony in the federal district. The party will retain 6 of 16 鈥渄elegaciones鈥� (municipalities), while newcomer Morena wins 5, PRI gets 3 and PAN 2. In local Congress elections, Lopez Obrador麓s new party Morena gives an outstanding performance wresting the majority of seats forcing down the PRD to second place and right wing PAN to third.   

4. Nationwide, Morena enters the stage as the fourth political force, displacing the green party PVEM. Surely a strong platform for Lopez Obrador麓s 2018 presidential ambitions, but that could also prove insufficient to the task.

5. The three major parties end up losing votes (PRD in a lesser proportion, by the way) but keep the 2012 ranking in Congress, conveying an implicit endorsement to the Pacto por M茅xico.

As anticipated, PRI麓s victory (along with its allies the Green Party PVEM and the Teachers麓 Union Party PANAL) reversed the trend set by the three previous midterm elections where the ruling party lost majority in Congress.

What they make of this victory will give abundant material for further discussion.

Veronica Ortiz is a lawyer and political analyst. She is also a journalist for the newspaper El Economista and TV presenter for Canal del Congreso and AprendeTV in Mexico.